MODEL PERFORMANCE
Public proof for benchmark-graded team forecasts and closing-line tracked player props.
How to read this: Team forecasts are graded against benchmark numbers. Prop metrics only use rows with closing-line data. ROI stays limited until price and stake history line up cleanly across both tracks.
393
Graded Games
30 day archived sample
59.2%
Benchmark Win Rate
223W - 154L - 16P
0
Awaiting Grade
resolved team forecasts missing benchmark grade
Not Ready
ROI Status
price and stake history not normalized
30D ARCHIVED LEDGER
393 graded · pushes excluded from rate
ALL-TIME ARCHIVED
1,888 graded team forecasts
QUALIFYING LEAGUES
NCAAB · NHL · MLB · La Liga · Serie A
Performance View
Uses benchmark-graded rm_forecast_accuracy_v2 rows with archived forecast snapshots frozen at publish time. Confidence tiers currently cover all graded games.
ROI is intentionally hidden until stake sizing and price history are normalized across the public game and prop ledgers.
New team-forecast engine changes only show up here after those forecasts are published, archived, and graded. This page does not rewrite past team history off current cache state.
Performance by Confidence Tier · Team Forecasts
By League · Team Forecasts
Recently Graded Team Forecasts
| Date | League | Matchup | Forecast | Closing Market | Tier | Result | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2 | MLB | HOU vs PIT | PIT +1.5 / ML -116 | PIT +1.5 (-220) / ML +116 | B | HOU 6 - PIT 10 | W |
| Jun 2 | MLB | ATL vs TOR | ATL -1.5 / ML -110 | ATL -1.5 (+220) / ML -245 | B | ATL 4 - TOR 3 | W |
| Jun 2 | MLB | MIL vs SF | MIL -3.5 / ML -240 | -- | B | MIL 8 - SF 3 | W |
| Jun 2 | MLB | STL vs TEX | STL -3.5 / ML -110 | STL ML -620 | B | STL 1 - TEX 2 | L |
| Jun 2 | MLB | ARI vs LAD | ARI +1.5 / ML -110 | ARI +1.5 (-156) / ML -102 | B | ARI 5 - LAD 6 | L |
| Jun 3 | WNBA | ATL vs CON | CON +13.5 / ML +210 | CON +13.5 (-108) / ML +680 | B+ | ATL 91 - CON 75 | W |
| Jun 2 | NHL | CAR vs VGK | VGK +1.5 / ML +135 | VGK +1.5 (+116) / ML +285 | B+ | CAR 4 - VGK 5 | W |
| Jun 3 | WNBA | WAS vs CHI | WAS +1.5 / ML -110 | WAS +1.5 (-110) / ML +104 | B | WAS 90 - CHI 72 | W |
| Jun 2 | MLB | WSH vs MIA | WSH +1.5 / ML -155 | WSH +1.5 (-280) / ML -108 | B | WSH 3 - MIA 7 | L |
| Jun 2 | MLB | TB vs DET | DET -2.5 / ML -620 | -- | B | TB 9 - DET 10 | W |
| Jun 3 | WNBA | LAS vs LVA | LVA -7.5 / ML -290 | LVA -7.5 (-104) / ML -280 | B+ | LAS 69 - LVA 79 | W |
| Jun 2 | MLB | MIN vs CWS | CWS +1.5 / ML -125 | CWS +1.5 (+104) / ML +290 | B | MIN 9 - CWS 6 | L |
| Jun 3 | WNBA | GSV vs POR | GSV -9.5 / ML -400 | GSV -9.5 (-112) / ML -420 | B+ | GSV 95 - POR 77 | W |
| Jun 2 | MLB | NYY vs CLE | NYY +1.5 / ML -110 | NYY +1.5 (-240) / ML +114 | B | NYY 4 - CLE 9 | L |
| Jun 1 | MLB | LAA vs COL | LAA -1.5 / ML -200 | LAA -1.5 (+108) / ML -200 | B | LAA 8 - COL 9 | L |
| Jun 1 | MLB | STL vs TEX | STL +1.5 / ML -140 | STL +1.5 (-168) / ML +138 | B | STL 1 - TEX 2 | L |
| Jun 1 | MLB | SEA vs NYM | SEA -1.5 / ML -142 | SEA -1.5 (+172) / ML -130 | B | SEA 3 - NYM 2 | W |
| Jun 1 | WNBA | PHX vs MIN | PHX +3 / ML -145 | PHX +2.5 (-106) / ML +120 | B+ | PHX 77 - MIN 111 | L |
| Jun 1 | MLB | WSH vs MIA | WSH +1.5 / ML -152 | WSH +1.5 (-300) / ML +132 | B | WSH 3 - MIA 7 | L |
| Jun 1 | WNBA | DAL vs SEA | SEA +22.5 / ML +410 | SEA +22.5 (-130) / ML +440 | B+ | DAL 79 - SEA 56 | L |
| May 31 | MLB | STL vs CHC | STL -0.5 / ML -105 | -- | B | STL 5 - CHC 1 | W |
| May 31 | MLB | CLE vs BOS | CLE -3.5 / ML -110 | -- | B | CLE 4 - BOS 9 | L |
| May 3 | Bundesliga | BMG vs BVB | BMG +1.5 / ML -125 | BMG +1.5 (-1039) | B | BMG 1 - BVB 0 | W |
| May 31 | MLB | WSH vs SD | WSH -1.5 / ML -320 | WSH -1.5 (-420) | B | WSH 4 - SD 2 | W |
| May 31 | MLB | CIN vs ATL | CIN -1.5 / ML -165 | CIN -1.5 (-500) | B | CIN 6 - ATL 4 | W |
| May 31 | MLB | CWS vs DET | CWS -1.5 / ML -110 | CWS -1.5 (+265) | B | CWS 2 - DET 1 | W |
| May 31 | WNBA | GSV vs LVA | LVA +1.5 / ML +108 | LVA +1.5 (-132) / ML -108 | B+ | GSV 81 - LVA 91 | W |
| May 30 | MLB | LAD vs PHI | LAD -2.5 / ML -620 | -- | B | LAD 3 - PHI 4 | L |
| May 31 | WNBA | POR vs IND | POR -1.5 / ML -110 | POR -18.5 (-108) / ML -550 | B | POR 100 - IND 84 | W |
| May 30 | MLB | CLE vs BOS | CLE -3.5 / ML -130 | -- | B | CLE 1 - BOS 9 | L |
| May 31 | MLB | BAL vs TOR | BAL -2.5 / ML -110 | -- | B | BAL 6 - TOR 5 | W |
| May 31 | MLB | TEX vs KC | TEX -1.5 / ML -320 | -- | B | TEX 7 - KC 6 | W |
| May 30 | MLB | COL vs SF | COL -2.7 / ML -110 | -- | B | COL 8 - SF 3 | W |
| May 30 | MLB | CWS vs DET | CWS -3.5 / ML -110 | -- | B | CWS 7 - DET 1 | W |
| May 30 | NBA | OKC vs SAS | OKC +2.5 / ML -155 | OKC +2.5 (+112) / ML +142 | B | OKC 103 - SAS 111 | L |
| May 30 | MLB | HOU vs MIL | HOU -2.5 / ML -280 | -- | B | HOU 4 - MIL 5 | L |
| May 30 | MLB | HOU vs MIL | MIL -1.5 / ML -100 | MIL -1.5 (+155) | B | HOU 4 - MIL 5 | W |
| May 30 | MLB | STL vs CHC | STL +1.5 / ML +125 | STL +1.5 (-235) / ML +108 | B | STL 6 - CHC 5 | W |
| May 30 | MLB | LAD vs PHI | PHI -1.5 / ML -112 | PHI -1.5 (+158) / ML -112 | B | LAD 4 - PHI 2 | L |
| May 29 | WNBA | POR vs ATL | POR +8.5 / ML +290 | POR +8.5 (-108) / ML +285 | B+ | POR 66 - ATL 86 | L |
| May 29 | NHL | CAR vs MTL | CAR -1.5 / ML -240 | CAR -3.5 (-148) | B+ | CAR 6 - MTL 1 | W |
| May 30 | MMA | LOMA vs JAQU | LOMA +3.5 / ML +120 | -- | B+ | LOMA 0 - JAQU 1 | W |
| May 30 | MLB | NYM vs MIA | NYM -2.5 / ML -110 | -- | B | NYM 9 - MIA 7 | W |
| May 30 | MLB | PIT vs MIN | PIT -1.5 / ML -142 | -- | B | PIT 6 - MIN 5 | W |
| May 30 | MLB | TEX vs KC | TEX +1.5 / ML -110 | TEX +1.5 (+178) / ML +360 | B | TEX 9 - KC 1 | W |
| May 29 | MLB | TEX vs KC | TEX -1.5 / ML -130 | TEX -1.5 (+176) / ML -124 | B | TEX 9 - KC 1 | W |
| May 30 | MLB | TB vs LAA | LAA -2.5 / ML -500 | -- | B | TB 8 - LAA 5 | L |
| May 30 | MLB | CIN vs ATL | ATL -1.5 / ML -110 | ATL -1.5 (+110) / ML -265 | B | CIN 3 - ATL 8 | W |
| May 29 | MLB | COL vs SF | COL +1.5 / ML +120 | COL +1.5 (-136) / ML +128 | B | COL 8 - SF 6 | W |
| May 30 | WNBA | TOR vs SEA | TOR -5.5 / ML -240 | TOR -5.5 (-115) / ML -230 | B+ | TOR 93 - SEA 72 | W |
Rain Man's Methodology
Rain Man's Prop Intel
Rain Man's direction-agnostic prop intelligence — analyzing player performance data, matchup dynamics, and market movement across all major sports.
Rain Man's Composite
Rain Man's multi-signal composite — blending prop intelligence, AI analysis, sharp interest tracking, and closing line value projections into a published winner-confidence score, with market-confidence context shown separately when it exists.
CLV Verification
Every pick is tracked against closing lines to verify genuine edge. Positive CLV means we consistently beat the market — the gold standard of forecasting accuracy.