MODEL PERFORMANCE
Public grading ledger for benchmark-graded team forecasts and closing-line tracked player props.
What this page is: Team forecasts are graded against a benchmark number, while prop metrics only use rows with closing-line data. What it is not: a normalized flat-stake ROI ledger yet. We are not publishing ROI until price and stake history line up cleanly across both tracks.
925
Benchmark Games
30 day sample
51.6%
Benchmark Win Rate
Benchmark-graded team forecasts
0
Awaiting Grade
resolved team forecasts missing benchmark grade
HIDDEN
ROI Status
stake and price ledger not normalized
Performance View
Uses benchmark-graded rm_forecast_accuracy_v2 rows with archived forecast snapshots frozen at publish time. Confidence tiers currently cover 95.8% of graded games; 39 graded forecasts remain untiered because the archived public confidence snapshot is missing.
ROI is intentionally hidden until stake sizing and price history are normalized across the public game and prop ledgers.
New team-forecast engine changes only show up here after those forecasts are published, archived, and graded. This page does not rewrite past team history off current cache state.
Performance by Confidence Tier · Team Forecasts
Tier cards currently cover 95.8% of graded games. 39 graded forecasts remain untiered because public confidence data is missing upstream.
By League · Team Forecasts
Recently Graded Team Forecasts
| Date | League | Matchup | Forecast | Closing Market | Tier | Result | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16 | MLB | HOU vs COL | HOU +1.5 / ML -215 | HOU -1.5 (+108) / ML -200 | B+ | HOU 2 - COL 3 | W |
| Apr 16 | NHL | COL vs SEA | COL -1.5 / ML -191 | COL -1.5 (+135) / ML -184 | B+ | COL 2 - SEA 0 | W |
| Apr 16 | NHL | CGY vs LA | CGY +1.5 / ML +106 | CGY +1.5 (-230) / ML +110 | B+ | CGY 3 - LA 1 | W |
| Apr 16 | NHL | WPG vs SJ | WPG +3.5 / ML -172 | WPG -1.5 (+150) / ML -162 | B+ | WPG 1 - SJ 6 | L |
| Apr 16 | NHL | EDM vs VAN | EDM +4.5 / ML -300 | EDM -1.5 (-125) / ML -323 | B+ | EDM 6 - VAN 1 | L |
| Apr 16 | MLB | SD vs SEA | SD -2.5 / ML +105 | SD +1.5 (-165) / ML +102 | B | SD 5 - SEA 2 | W |
| Apr 16 | NHL | NSH vs ANA | NSH +1.5 / ML -148 | NSH +1.5 (-262) | B+ | NSH 4 - ANA 5 | W |
| Apr 15 | MLB | HOU vs COL | HOU -3.5 / ML -205 | HOU -1.5 (+114) / ML -188 | A | HOU 3 - COL 1 | L |
| Apr 15 | MLB | OAK vs TEX | OAK +0.9 / ML -112 | OAK +1.5 (-180) / ML -102 | B | OAK 6 - TEX 5 | L |
| Apr 15 | NHL | CHI vs SJ | CHI +1.5 / ML +106 | CHI +1.5 (-245) / ML +100 | B+ | CHI 5 - SJ 2 | W |
| Apr 15 | NBA | LAC vs GSW | GSW +4 / ML +150 | GSW +5.5 (-110) / ML +175 | B+ | LAC 121 - GSW 126 | W |
| Apr 15 | MLB | LAD vs NYM | LAD -3.5 / ML -235 | LAD -1.5 (-102) / ML -222 | B+ | LAD 8 - NYM 2 | W |
| Apr 16 | MLB | CLE vs BAL | BAL -1.5 / ML +108 | BAL +1.5 (-200) / ML +106 | B+ | CLE 4 - BAL 2 | W |
| Apr 15 | NHL | VGK vs SEA | VGK -1.5 / ML -255 | VGK -1.5 (-115) / ML -286 | B+ | VGK 4 - SEA 1 | W |
| Apr 16 | NHL | UTA vs STL | STL +1.5 / ML +108 | STL +1.5 (-264) / ML -105 | B+ | UTA 3 - STL 5 | W |
| Apr 15 | MLB | SD vs SEA | SD PK / ML -104 | SD +1.5 (-186) / ML -109 | B | SD 7 - SEA 6 | W |
| Apr 16 | MLB | CWS vs TB | TB -1.5 / ML -148 | TB -1.5 (+129) / ML -130 | B | CWS 3 - TB 5 | W |
| Apr 16 | MLB | DET vs KC | DET +1.5 / ML -118 | DET +1.5 (-185) / ML -105 | B+ | DET 6 - KC 8 | L |
| Apr 16 | MLB | NYY vs LAA | LAA -0.6 / ML +122 | LAA +1.5 (+105) / ML +215 | B+ | NYY 4 - LAA 11 | L |
| Apr 15 | NBA | PHI vs ORL | ORL +5.5 / ML +105 | ORL +1.5 (-107) / ML +108 | B+ | PHI 109 - ORL 97 | L |
| Apr 15 | UCL | ARS vs SCP | ARS -1.25 / ML -155 | ARS -0.5 (-110) / ML -155 | B | ARS 0 - SCP 0 | L |
| Apr 14 | MLB | HOU vs COL | HOU -3.4 / ML -195 | HOU -1.5 (+117) / ML -185 | B+ | HOU 7 - COL 6 | L |
| Apr 14 | MLB | OAK vs TEX | OAK -3 / ML -118 | OAK +1.5 (-164) / ML +100 | B+ | OAK 2 - TEX 1 | L |
| Apr 14 | NHL | STL vs PIT | PIT +1.5 / ML +104 | PIT +1.5 (-226) / ML +110 | B+ | STL 7 - PIT 5 | L |
| Apr 15 | MLB | ATL vs MIA | ATL -3.5 / ML -176 | ATL -1.5 (+125) / ML -167 | B+ | ATL 6 - MIA 3 | L |
| Apr 15 | MLB | MIL vs TOR | MIL +1.5 / ML +104 | MIL +1.5 (-167) / ML +103 | B | MIL 2 - TOR 1 | W |
| Apr 14 | NHL | VAN vs LA | VAN +1.5 / ML +110 | VAN +1.5 (-184) / ML +135 | B+ | VAN 4 - LA 3 | W |
| Apr 14 | MLB | LAD vs NYM | LAD -3.5 / ML -208 | LAD -1.5 (+115) / ML -195 | B+ | LAD 2 - NYM 1 | L |
| Apr 14 | NHL | CGY vs COL | CGY +1.5 / ML +118 | CGY +1.5 (-173) / ML +140 | B+ | CGY 1 - COL 3 | L |
| Apr 15 | NHL | TB vs NYR | NYR +2.5 / ML +100 | NYR +1.5 (-215) / ML +106 | B+ | TB 2 - NYR 4 | W |
| Apr 14 | NHL | UTA vs WPG | UTA +1.5 / ML -158 | UTA -1.5 (+145) / ML -170 | B+ | UTA 5 - WPG 3 | L |
| Apr 14 | MLB | SD vs SEA | SEA +0.3 / ML -115 | SEA -1.5 (+140) / ML -125 | B | SD 4 - SEA 1 | L |
| Apr 15 | NHL | FLA vs DET | FLA +3.5 / ML +105 | FLA +1.5 (-218) / ML +115 | B+ | FLA 8 - DET 1 | L |
| Apr 15 | MLB | PHI vs CHC | CHC -3.4 / ML -118 | CHC +1.5 (-175) / ML +118 | B | PHI 2 - CHC 11 | W |
| Apr 15 | MLB | PIT vs WSH | PIT +0.3 / ML -128 | PIT -1.5 (+114) / ML -182 | B | PIT 4 - WSH 5 | W |
| Apr 15 | MLB | CIN vs SF | CIN -2.2 / ML -118 | CIN +1.5 (-165) / ML -103 | B+ | CIN 8 - SF 3 | W |
| Apr 15 | NHL | BUF vs DAL | DAL +1.5 / ML -102 | DAL +1.5 (-270) / ML -110 | B+ | BUF 3 - DAL 4 | W |
| Apr 15 | NHL | OTT vs TOR | OTT +2.5 / ML -178 | OTT -1.5 (+125) / ML -190 | B+ | OTT 3 - TOR 1 | W |
| Apr 15 | MLB | CWS vs TB | TB -2.7 / ML -128 | TB -1.5 (+140) / ML -121 | B | CWS 3 - TB 8 | W |
| Apr 14 | NBA | PHX vs POR | POR +1.5 / ML +110 | POR +3.5 (-110) / ML +135 | A | PHX 110 - POR 114 | L |
| Apr 15 | MLB | DET vs KC | DET +1.5 / ML -128 | DET -1.5 (+157) / ML -133 | B | DET 2 - KC 1 | W |
| Apr 14 | NHL | MIN vs ANA | ANA +2.5 / ML +108 | ANA +1.5 (-260) / ML -110 | B+ | MIN 3 - ANA 2 | W |
| Apr 15 | MLB | NYY vs LAA | NYY +1.5 / ML -144 | NYY -1.5 (+100) / ML -195 | B+ | NYY 5 - LAA 4 | W |
| Apr 13 | MLB | OAK vs TEX | OAK -2.8 / ML -108 | OAK +1.5 (-145) / ML +111 | B+ | OAK 1 - TEX 8 | L |
| Apr 13 | NHL | CHI vs BUF | CHI +3.5 / ML +114 | CHI +1.5 (-140) / ML +175 | B+ | CHI 1 - BUF 5 | L |
| Apr 13 | NHL | STL vs MIN | STL +2.5 / ML +101 | STL +1.5 (-250) / ML +102 | B+ | STL 6 - MIN 3 | L |
| Apr 14 | MLB | ATL vs MIA | ATL -3.5 / ML -167 | ATL -1.5 (+135) / ML -159 | B+ | ATL 6 - MIA 5 | L |
| Apr 14 | MLB | MIL vs TOR | TOR +1.5 / ML +108 | TOR +1.5 (-210) / ML +100 | B | MIL 7 - TOR 9 | L |
| Apr 14 | NHL | BOS vs NJ | NJ +4.5 / ML +104 | NJ +1.5 (-225) / ML +115 | B+ | BOS 4 - NJ 0 | W |
| Apr 14 | MLB | STL vs CLE | CLE -1.5 / ML -102 | CLE -1.5 (+140) / ML -120 | B | STL 6 - CLE 5 | L |
Rain Man's Methodology
Rain Man's Prop Intel
Rain Man's direction-agnostic prop intelligence — analyzing player performance data, matchup dynamics, and market movement across all major sports.
Rain Man's Composite
Rain Man's multi-signal composite — blending prop intelligence, AI analysis, sharp interest tracking, and closing line value projections into a unified confidence score.
CLV Verification
Every pick is tracked against closing lines to verify genuine edge. Positive CLV means we consistently beat the market — the gold standard of forecasting accuracy.